As the world gets ready to ring in the new year, the aerospace and airline industry is facing five major unknowns in this upcoming year.
Let’s take a look at five big stories that we will likely see in the new year.
1. SpaceX’s To Orbit Finally?
SpaceX, led by eccentric entrepreneur Elon Musk, has become a commercial success. Its Falcon9 rocket has launched this year more than any other spacecraft. His ambitions are larger though. His Starship spacecraft has experienced two spectacular launches thus far. Both have ended in progress but ultimately failure. As 2024 unfolds, the big question is whether SpaceX will achieve its ambitious goal of reaching orbit with its Starship spacecraft. The Starship, designed to be a fully reusable spacecraft capable of landing on the moon and carrying humans to Mars, is pivotal to our nation’s return to the moon ambitions.
The success or delay of SpaceX’s orbital mission could impact not only the company but also America’s ambitious plans for the moon and beyond. On the other hand, a breakthrough will be an amazing technical accomplishment for the industry.
2. Pilot Hiring Trends: A Plateau, Dip or Continuation of 2023 trends?
The aviation industry has experienced a significant pilot shortage in recent years, leading to aggressive hiring, expanded training program/industry, and reduction of minimums to be hired. However, as we step into 2024, there are speculations about whether this trend will continue or if we will see a slowdown in pilot hiring. There are warning signs on the horizon: stubborn inflation, a spending hangover after COVID-19, slow return of business travelers, and an aging aviation and persistent economic concerns are just some of the factors at play.
Some airlines have already floated that they will reduce hiring targets in 2024. Others plan to continue at their previously announced levels. This is a great unknown headed into 2024. The need for more pilots is definitely there but demand could soften. This is one to watch.
3. The Fate of Boeing’s MAX 7 and 10 Deliveries
Boeing’s 737 MAX series, particularly the MAX 7 and 10 models, have been under intense scrutiny after the grounding of the MAX in 2019 after two fatal crashes. The MAX number 7 and 10 have languished for years without certification. There are many jets ready for delivery but lack authorization to fly. The MAX 7 and 10 are crucial for Boeing’s long-term health and airlines’ continued growth.
The repeated delays are concerning and there is not yet a clear indication of when they will be certified. Previously mentioned target dates have repeatedly gone by without a change in status. This is a critical issue for Boeing. Their hope is that 2024 is a better year for the smallest and largest MAX fleets.
4. Boom Supersonic’s XB-1 Test Flight: Boom or Bust?
Boom Supersonic, with its ambitious Overture supersonic airliner project, aims to revive supersonic passenger travel. The key milestone to watch in 2024 is the first flight of Boom’s XB-1 demonstrator, a crucial step towards realizing the Overture. The XB-1’s performance will offer insights into their approach to the technology that they eventually want to field.
Boom’s success on their XB-1 is not really game changing. The jet looks more like a T-38 and Eurofighter were combined into a gangly, new fighter jet. It’s likely to fly. The lessons learned though could demonstrate that Boom is on the right path, albeit a long one. A failure though could spell doom for the long-desired, but rarely successful hope for commercial supersonic transport.
5. America’s Return To The Moon: A Shaky Timeline
The United States Artemis program is the nation’s ambitious plan to return to the moon. The timeline is tight with many risks and unknowns, including the SpaceX Starship that we mentioned above. As 2024 begins, NASA is on the clock to launch Artemis II. The success of the Artemis missions is critical for US. The cost is so great that any failure or large setback would likely doom the program.
In 2024, we’re likely to see the first crew to orbit the moon in over 50 years, including the first woman and african american ever to orbit the moon. It will be a big story and we’ll be here to cover it.
What other big aviation and space stories are you watching in 2024? Let us know in the comments below.
