Next year, NASA hopes to launch Artemis-3 alongside two commercial contractors Blue Origin, owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos, and SpaceX, owned by billionaire Elon Musk. However, neither company is anywhere close to ready, and after last night’s explosion of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, both rockets to launch the landers next year are currently grounded by the FAA.
The impact of last night’s explosion, combined with other Starship mishaps, could be significant for NASA’s near term Artemis plans to land on the moon again before China.
More pressure is on SpaceX Starship now to get operational for Artemis-3
Starship just recently flew its 12th test, with a new beefed-up version of the previous design. The mammoth booster is supposed to return to Earth on a controlled power descent, but on flight 12 the engines conked out, leaving the booster to crash into the ocean instead of a controlled soft-landing on the waves. So it is currently grounded until they find the cause and solution.
The Starship itself did well, and did its own soft-landing before exploding as expected.
With the loss of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, there is even more pressure on SpaceX now to get Starship operational. NASA also gave Blue Origin a contract to develop a moon lander for Artemis missions. It is called Blue Moon, and is to launch on New Glenn.
With last night’s explosion taking out half the launch complex, it is safe to assume that repair work at LC-36 will take 6-12 months before the pad is operational again.
Add to that, New Glenn has only flown 3x, and the 3rd launch actually failed to deliver the payload to the proper orbit. So, even once the pad is repaired, they still don’t have a safe and consistent flight rate enough for NASA to realistically trust it yet. So, is Artemis-3 still realistic for 2027?
A cargo version of Blue Moon is currently undergoing testing in Houston, but now it has no rocket to launch to the moon on. It was supposed to launch this year, on an uncrewed lunar landing to show NASA it works and deliver the first payloads supporting future crews.
Blue’s lander can however fit on NASA’s Artemis SLS rocket, used to launch the crew on Orion.
Blue Origin was to start launching Artemis infrastructure and payloads to the moon this year, now that won’t happen
NASA also awarded Blue Origin a contract to deliver payloads and Lunar Terrain Vehicles to the Moon for the Artemis program using New Glenn beginning later this year. With last night’s explosion, those plans are now gone.
NASA has proven their SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft for Artemis works, twice. Now it’s on Blue Origin and SpaceX to step up with their promises.
Artemis-3 is scheduled to launch next year, as a test in Earth orbit with NASA’s crew on the Orion spacecraft doing docking and rendezvous tests with the landers. But if the landers and their rockets are not ready, there is no mission. Which would mean no moon landing in 2028 either. Everything will continue delaying further.
For now, both Blue Origin and SpaceX have shifted priorities more to development of the landers, to stay within the timetable expectations of the President and NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. Both companies will no doubt figure things out. But will they do it before China?
